Utah State isn’t sneaking up on anyone after Friday night. The Aggies outscored Villanova 15-3 over the final six minutes to pull away 86-76 in their matchup with the east coast Wildcats. Here’s what Arizona fans need to know heading into Sunday’s nightcap.
They Live in the Paint
This is the defining trait of Utah State’s offense. The Aggies are scoring 38.7 points in the paint per game and shooting 60.9% inside the key this season. It’s not accidental, head coach Jerrod Calhoun has built a system around point guard Drake Allen and wing Mason Falslev feeding post entries and duck-ins, making Utah State relentlessly efficient at the rim. They rank 11th in the nation in two-point field goal percentage at 59.3%. If Arizona’s interior defense slips, the Aggies will make them pay.
They Force Turnovers and Run
Utah State ranks 16th in the country in steal percentage and 35th in fast-break points per game, and in their Mountain West Tournament run, they nearly had a 10-point differential in fast-break points per game while winning the turnover battle each night by six. Their defensive pressure extends well beyond half court, and when they create turnovers, they convert. Arizona needs to be clean with the ball.
The Two Guys to Watch
Mason Falslev is the Mountain West Player of the Year and the engine of this team. The 6-foot-4 junior is averaging 16.2 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game and had 22 points and seven rebounds against Villanova on Friday. He does everything — scores, rebounds at an above-average clip for a wing, and facilitates. He’s a matchup problem.
MJ Collins Jr. is the leading scorer. The senior transfer from Vanderbilt is averaging 17.6 points per game while shooting 49.5% from the floor and 37.2% from three. Collins has now scored 20 or more points in four of his last five games. Notably, if Collins makes a three in the tournament, he’ll have made as many threes this season as he did in his first three years of college basketball combined, he’s evolved as a shooter late in the year and is playing his best basketball right now.
The Supporting Cast
Karson Templin, the Mountain West Sixth Man of the Year, is third on the team in scoring at 9.3 points per game while shooting 53.9% from the field. He’s part of a four-man frontcourt rotation that also includes freshman Adlan Elamin, Garry Clark, and Zach Keller. Elamin had 13 points and seven rebounds against Villanova and helped Utah State finish with a 37-27 rebounding advantage on Friday.
Where They’re Vulnerable
Utah State does not shoot free throws well. The Aggies rank 250th nationally at the foul line, converting just 70.6% of their attempts. Against Villanova, they went 28-for-37 — they got to the line often enough to survive it, but against Arizona’s defense, getting stops matters more than bonus points. The Aggies also went just 2-for-16 from three against Villanova, and Arizona’s perimeter defense should keep them uncomfortable from outside again. Their game plan runs through the paint, take that away, and their offense changes shape in a hurry.
The Bottom Line
This matchup on paper doesn’t bode well for the Aggies. It’s essentially trying to fight a huge fire with a little fire… again, on paper. If you’re going to upset one of the championship favorites, the recipe doesn’t appear to be beat them in the paint – the paint they have dominated all year long against teams that have much more fire power than the Aggies currently harness.
But that’s why they call it an upset and not the norm.
“I’m sure they will throw a few wrinkles, maybe try to throw us off, but regardless we’ll be ready for it,” said Arizona senior forward Tobe Awaka.
Utah State is a well-coached, legitimate mid-major built on paint scoring, defense and chaos. They pressure opponents full-court, cause turnovers, and convert them into easy buckets. Arizona has the talent to handle all of it, but Wildcat fans should know exactly what’s coming Sunday night at Viejas.
Tip-off is 4:50 p.m. PT on TruTV, following Kansas vs. St. John’s in the doubleheader opener.
