The Arizona Wildcats are ranked No. 21 in the Associated Press preseason poll, which is fine, kinda cool, certainly rare in the past quarter century … and just a hint of what this season could be.
Here we are on the verge of what could be the most, intriguing, exciting, rewarding Wildcats football season ever.
Consider: New lovable coach (Brent Brennan), new conference (hello, Big 12!), star QB (Noah Fifita), the best receiver in America (a fully healthy Tetairoa McMillan), more first-round talent (offensive lineman Jonah Savaiinaea) — and plenty of other feel-great indications — all rolled into an expanded playoff system that is going to heighten the suspense through November.
So, yes, No. 21 is fine. For now.
But can the Wildcats be one of 12 to land in the expanded postseason?
As I wrote this summer for Lindy’s College Football Annuals, the 12-team playoff finally offers real access – three times the previous access – to programs that aren’t the blue-blooded ones that dominated the 10 years of the four-team College Football Playoff.
It’s no longer just about either finishing atop the SEC and Big Ten OR campaigning for the votes to slip into one of the other two spots. Now it’s more a matter of winning your damn games and you’ll get in.
Given that the five highest-ranked conference champions make the field (that means a team from the American Athletic, Mountain West, Sun Belt, Mid-American or Conference USA gets a bid), major conference non-champions probably need to finish at least 11th in the rankings to secure a spot.
Teams from the Big 4 conferences that begin the final month with two losses – or even three! – will remain within range.
We did the math.
In the past decade (throwing out the COVID-shortened 2020 season), 89 percent of the teams that finished 11th or 12th in the final regular-season rankings have had at least two losses, and 50 percent have had three.
That means – just as Utah did in 2021 and Washington in 2022 — teams won’t even have to be in the Top 25 entering November and can still rise high enough (11th or 12th) by Selection Day to get into the playoffs.
From now on, when we reach the end of October, every team sitting 7-2 or even 6-3 – or still with a shot at their conference title — can still ask, “Why not us?” and “Let’s win out!”
That’s going to make for some intense final-month football. Let’s say the Wildcats in somewhat of a worst-case scenario stumble in late September with road losses at Kansas State and Utah to put their record at 2-2. All it takes is a get-right month in a reasonably soft October (vs. Texas Tech, at BYU, vs. Colorado, vs. West Virginia) to get them right back in the Big 12 title and College Football Playoff discussion heading into November.
This is going to be fun.
How will the Wildcats do?
So, prediction time:
I’m sure I’ve forgotten plenty over the year, but, truth is, I can’t ever recall a more tightly-packed major conference at the top than the 2024 Big 12.
The league’s media picked Utah to win the conference, but I prefer Oklahoma State. Kansas State and Kansas are others in the AP rankings with the Wildcats. I implore everyone to not sleep on Iowa State and West Virginia. UCF is going to be dangerous. Texas Tech is another tough out. Not quite sure what to make of TCU, but I love coach Sonny Dykes and, lest we forget, the Frogs were playing for the national title as recently as the 2022 season.
There isn’t a sure-fire national championship contender in the bunch, but it wouldn’t shock me if any of the top seven won the league.
That’s a long way of saying Arizona is going to be playing a series of win-some, lose-some butt-clenchers in which some Wildcat player(s) is going to have to be a fourth-quarter hero. When’s it all done, let’s call it 9-3 overall, 7-2 in conference.
Will that be good enough for a spot in the Big 12 title game and beyond?
Maybe. Maybe not.
But as fresh storylines and immense talent collide, it’s going to be one hell of a thrill ride on the way to that answer.
Top image: Arizona Wildcats quarterback Noah Fifita runs the ball against Oklahoma in the 2023 Alamo Bowl. (Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports)
