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Trio of factors led to Coyotes' disappointing deadline deals for Matt Dumba, Jason Zucker
Coyotes GM Bill Armstrong was in a bind this summer. He had to pull a rabbit out of a hat. Tempe voters had just rejected the team’s arena proposal. Players and agents were asking questions about the future of the team — off the ice and on it.
Armstrong needed a way to turn the narrative around. He needed to show that Arizona was still a desirable place to play. It was his only hope of preventing more core players from following Jakob Chychrun’s lead out of town. It was his only hope of convincing Logan Cooley to join the team instead of returning to the University of Minnesota for his sophomore season. It was his only hope of selling the future of hockey in Arizona.
So on the first day of free agency, Armstrong signed free-agent wing Jason Zucker to a one-year, $5.3 million contract. He signed free-agent forward Alex Kerfoot to a two-year, $7 million contract. He signed free-agent center Nick Bjugstad to a two-year, $4.2 million deal. He signed free-agent defenseman Troy Stecher to a one year, $1.1 million contract. And later that summer, he signed free-agent defenseman Matt Dumba to a one-year, $3.9 million deal.
Zucker and Dumba were the headliners; players whom analysts expected to sign with better teams for a chance to win. Instead, they came to Arizona on prove-it deals. In luring them, Armstrong proved that the Coyotes were still a desirable destination despite the franchise’s many challenges.
The agents were satisfied. The players were satisfied. The arena narrative was still there — it’s always there with this franchise — but at least it had to share the stage with some on-ice optimism. And Armstrong was able to grab some of that spotlight without sacrificing the greater plan. He was able to avoid the mistakes of his predecessors, who tried to rush a rebuild blueprint for which there is no fast track without No. 1 or No. 2 overall picks.
The hope was that Dumba and Zucker would provide more assets to build what Armstrong has always called sustainable success. The hope was that both players would use this opportunity the way Shayne Gostisbehere and Bjugstad had used it in previous seasons, but if they did not, they were only on one-year deals with manageable financial details.
A trio of conspiring factors doomed the Coyotes on Friday, the NHL’s 2024 trade deadline day. Zucker and Dumba both turned in disappointing seasons, dropping their value in the eyes of pro scouts and executives. The 2024 market was also a buyer’s market. Finally, the Coyotes were not willing to retain salary, which dropped the value of both players lower than it might have been.
After getting a reasonable return for Stecher on Thursday (a 2027 fourth-round pick), the first hint of trouble came when the Coyotes unloaded Zucker to the Nashville Predators for a 2024 sixth-round pick; the one that Nashville acquired from Dallas. There was no salary retained in the deal. In the final hour before the 1 p.m. deadline, the Coyotes traded Dumba and a seventh-round pick in 2025 to Tampa for a 2027 fifth-round pick. Again, no salary was retained.
Could the Coyotes have landed better picks had they been willing to retain salary? Absolutely. In this cap-strapped climate, cap space is king. Without that chip to play, the management staff was handcuffed. The moves left them with a roster whose bottom-line dollars spent are a shade below the cap floor (the important number to the league is the cap hit, not actual dollars).
It’s pretty clear that the Coyotes are pinching pennies as they continue to search for an arena solution that is not 4,600-seat Mullett Arena. They made it clear they were going to run lean during the rebuild and this is that.
The plus side? They are rid of both contracts immediately and with Dumba in particular, they saved about half his salary because he had a $1.35 million bonus due after the deadline. Couple that with the prorated portion of Zucker’s salary and the Coyotes saved about $3.2 million by shedding both players. The only retained salary they will have is Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s. The buyouts for Zack Kassian and Patrik Nemeth will expire after next season and the only dead cap contract they will have after this season belongs to Shea Weber (through 2025-26).
“The Yotes would have liked a better return today,” Armstrong said. “They probably would have liked better play from their players, too. We wanted to salvage something from the investment we’ve made but at the end of the day, it’s a situation where we’re not locked in and we get to breathe again. We can continue on with the right plan. We didn’t get into something where we locked ourselves in for life and now all of a sudden we’re going sideways on it. We’re still going forward with the same plan and that’s important for people to know.”
It’s also important to review the deals that the Coyotes did not make. Bjugstad, Kerfoot and forward Michael Carcone generated plenty of interest, but in this market, and with all three players under contract for another year, Armstrong didn’t see the value in trading them now.
“There were a ton of teams in on Bjugstad, Kerfoot and Carcone, but we wanted to move forward with those guys,” Armstrong said. “We’ve going to rebuild our D corps, right? I don’t want to have to also run around and say, ‘I need a center. I wonder if this guy is gonna work.’
“I know Kerfoot can patch any hole and I know that Bjugy can play on the third line and he’s only getting better. We didn’t really want to patch those holes in the middle of the summer when we already have those pieces.”
By keeping those players, Armstrong can also flip them next summer when the cap goes up and the market may bear better fruit.
In the meantime, Bjugstad got to celebrate a far more important moment without the stress of changing teams and cities.
Armstrong and his management team? Yes, they were disappointed, but it won’t last long.
“We didn’t want to be in this kind of situation, but we made the best of it,” he said. “Now we’re gonna move forward with our core. We didn’t trade any of those guys so we move on.”
Coyotes’ AHL moves
Tucson will get a boost come postseason time. The Coyotes assigned forward Dylan Guenther and defenseman Michael Kesselring to the Roadrunners before Monday’s deadline, making both players eligible to compete in the AHL playoffs. They also returned Patrik Koch to Tucson on loan. All three moves were paper transactions, meaning the players can remain with the Coyotes for now, which is expected.
Noticeably absent from that list was the only other player on the NHL roster who was waivers eligible: center Logan Cooley. The Coyotes never even considered the move. In luring Cooley out of college, they had to sell the opportunity.
It’s too bad because there is no downside to Cooley competing in the AHL playoffs. They are meaningful games that would have helped his development, helped the Roadrunners’ playoff chances, and it would have sent one hell of a message to the fan base about commitment, but the topic was never broached.
“This is just my take and I’m a young GM,” Armstrong said. “I like to have a two-way street of respect for players and I don’t want to surprise them with anything. I wouldn’t want to blindside him with that after coming out of college this season so it was never discussed.”
At least Tucson will get two players back who can really help its playoff push. Guenther was leading the Roadrunners in goals and points before his recall. Kesselring will further deepen an already solid blue line. The Roadrunners will be worth watching this postseason.
As for immediate recalls, the Coyotes are only allowed four more outside of emergency recalls (unlimited). We’ll see how the season plays out, but expect forwards Josh Doan and Aku Räty to get looks before the Coyotes’ season ends.
Top illustration of Troy Stecher, Matt Dumba and Jason Zucker via PHNX Sports’ Jacob Franklin
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